His article on the over-hyped Internet is also a good read.

What’s new and notable in the social networking realm?

• David Kirkpatrick, Senior Editor of Fortune, did an interesting write-up entitled “Geography, social media and breakfast“: “Combining social networks with geographic information was one of the big ideas at a gathering this week of uber-techies and media digirati in New York.”…”The next big thing is the integration of location-based information with social networking applications. At least that’s one conclusion I took from a high-energy “social media” breakfast for 100 techies in New York this week.”…”Not only will you see what someone is doing online, but you will know where they are doing it. That might significantly change how you relate to people in the real world.”…”Not merely entertainment, it is supposed to let you use Google maps to get things done with other people, as well as play games. Aktihanoglu says it will allow you to, among other things, in effect combine Craigslist with Google Earth. His motto: “Never be lonely again!” (It’s pretty hard to use so far, though.)”…”Geography is likely to get more important on the Net.”My Response: A very interesting and relevant article about the state of social networking and the integration of geography into the fray. I agree with Mr. Kirkpatrick and this is evidenced by several of our current social networking projects utilizing Google Mapping technology and geo-based functionalities. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: the next phase in social networking will be a “shakeout” of the social networks that aren’t relevant, aren’t adding value, and aren’t fulfilling a need or want in a simple, innovative way. People don’t want “just another social network.” No one wants to have to join and maintain presences on 10 social networks, especially if none are adding value and all are focused simply on trivial conversations and “pokes.” My belief is that in the future, one “broad” social networking is certainly needed (e.g. Facebook, or when a social platform succesfully connects ALL networks and gets broad appeal, so if you have a presence out there on one site, you have a presence on this main site). Several career (or student based, for younger people) based social networks would be valuable and additional sites will have to fulfill a want or need so well, and be so focused on adding direct value to their audience, that interested users will have no choice. Geo-based functionalities is simply an example of this new breed of valuable features that combine function with form in an innovative way.
• Esther Dyson of the Wall Street Journal wrote “The Coming Ad Revolution“: “The current online-advertising model will become less effective, even as it gets increasingly sophisticated. New players are emerging to devalue the spaces that the ad giants are currently fighting over. Companies you’ve never heard of called NebuAd, Project Rialto, Phorm, Frontporch and Adzilla are pitching tools to Internet service providers that will enable them to track users and show them relevant ads. This approach (called behavioral targeting and already in service by ad networks that track users through so-called tracking cookies) undercuts traditional online publishers, who employ content to lure users and to sell adjacent ads. Now, the ISPs can sell advertisers direct access to the same users.”…”This market will get more competitive, and users will be barraged by ads to which they will pay less and less attention. Call that public space, a world of billboards and cacophony. Even though the ads will be more “relevant” than ever, users will increasingly tune them out.”…”This does not mean that traditional online advertising will go away, just that it will become less effective. Value is being created in users’ own walled gardens, which they will cultivate for themselves in real estate owned by the social networks. The new value creators are companies — like Facebook and Dopplr — that know how to build and support online communities.”My Response: Key point here: when you’re serving a visitor with a relevant product, link, or company (note my omission of the word “ad”) at a time when they need or want this information, it’s not annoying. It’s helpful, valuable, and liked. Examples: Google’s Sponsored Search Results and Amazon’s Recommends. Except, too much of a good thing is a bad thing. So even more relevant ads isn’t necessarily wanted, either. On the other hand, any other method of approach in this day and age simply will not work that well anymore. With more and more clutter comes more and more selective vision and hearing. It’s exciting indeed to see the new technology on the horizon continue to evolve into more and more useful as mass advertising winds down.

Other notable articles:

• Presidential Hopefuls Spending Little On Web Ads. Why? Social Networking.
  “…We can all recognize collectively that modern social frameworks on the Web are remarkably efficient platforms and means with/by which messages can be relayed. And if we are to take into account the reality that many millions of Americans are connected in one way or another to online networks – if one should look at the growth of social networks over the last few years, one can see quite clearly that a very significant percentage of Internet users in the U.S. are connected to a social framework of some sort – it then must come as little surprise that advertisement spending by the present set of presidential campaigns has been, well, exceedingly small. Especially given the very momentous circumstances we find ourselves in.”
  
• Facebook on top of social networking tree, but you won’t find new friends or a job.
  “Facebook is still the most popular social networking site among students and graduates, and clearly ahead of Bebo and MySpace when put head-to-head according to Milkround.com’s student and graduate database. But users claim none of the major three offer enough help finding new friends or a job.”

P.S. Facebook, if you’re reading this, I’m SO tired of Facebook Application-originated SPAM! I understand things spread virally and that the current methods ensure the Facebook Platform grows and that Facebook app developers have an easy, viral method of transmitting their work and spreading their tools. It’s simply that when it becomes a nuisance/annoyance every time I log in to my account to have to clear tons of invitations and junk from my account, something is wrong. Am I not supposed to enjoy my logged-in time on Facebook? Because it’s starting to feel more like taking out the trash every week. To me, it’s the social networking version of e-mail forwards. Yes, the e-mail forward is originating from my friend, but with too many non-relevant forwards, pretty soon you block them all out and eventually set your spam filter to “kill mode.” To add insult to injury, it appears the mySpace is following the same path. Go figure. That is, go figure out how your social network can add value and spread ideas without becoming annoying, intrusive, and cluttered.

-RB

99% of your social network’s current and/or future users are what I call “reactive users.” This group is content to read and accept, but isn’t the group that is going to customize their profile to an extreme, contribute blog posts, upload videos, spread the word virally, etc… I’m not saying that this group won’t do these activities, just that they will approach these activities with a limited amount of energy and commitment as well as a different paradigm.

The 1% left are the “proactive users.” Seth Godin in his new book Meatball Sundae (highly recommended) contributes the following:

“Ben McConnell and Jackie Huba’s book Citizen Marketer proves that in just about every community, 1 percent of the people are givers. In Wikipedia, for example, about 1 percent of the users create and edit articles. Same goes for Microsoft’s Channel 9 Web site. They get four and a half million visitors a month, and almost exactly 1 percent of them contribute comments. The same math works for Digg, Reddit, and YouTube. One percent of blog readers are blog writers. One percent of talk-radio listeners are callers. The thing is, you don’t know who they are. You don’t know which 1 percent of your customers and prospects are the ones who need to, love to, and want to post about their experience. It’s like Russian Roulette. You have to assume that every chamber is loaded, that every interaction is an interaction with a critic.”

What does this mean to a fledgling social networking website or to the likes of even Facebook or Bebo? IMO, there are several take-aways:

• You can try to figure out a way to increase the 1% to 2% or maybe 5%, maybe even 10%. Possible? Maybe. How? Make it easier to contribute, quicker to spread the word, more rewarding to post content, etc… It’s like our national voting problem: many people don’t vote simply because they feel, at least internally, that their vote doesn’t count. The same rings true on the web; if users don’t feel like their vote (or post, or video, or profile, etc…) doesn’t count, they won’t bother to show up and they certainly won’t wear the “I Just Voted” sticker (or, in terms of the web, they won’t spread the message virally if they themselves don’t buy into it).
• You must treat every interaction with a user as if they are or can be part of that proactive 1%.
• Appealing to the 1% is more important than anything in terms of marketing, yet appealing to the 99% is crucial for obvious reasons. Without the 1%, you won’t have the 99% and reverse. And just as passionately as the 1% can involve themselves into your social networking website can the 99% devolve themselves if rubbed the wrong way.
• If you thought you needed 1,000 users or 50,000 users for your community to be considered a success, think again. A threshold in terms of users doesn’t mean anything if only 10 out of the 1,000 are the proactive users or if you’ve discovered a way to increase this percentage. A passionate group of 100 users can be much more beneficial than a laid-back group of 10,000.

-RB

Here are the first five of a list of ten current trends that will affect how 2008 shapes up.  After posting the final five trends, I will write a multi-part segment on how you can take advantage of each trend this year.

Growth In The Interactive Marketing Segment
Interactive marketing, which includes search engine marketing, e-mail marketing, online content and video ads, mobile marketing, and social media marketing, is consistently growing as a key advertising category.  Over the next few years, spending on interactive marketing will more than triple, reaching $61 billion USD by 2012 according to Forrester Research.  Interactive marketing currently makes up just 8% of all advertising spending and with the growth trend this percentage should increase to 18% by 2012.

Traditional to Alternative Media
Advertising in traditional media, like newspapers and magazines, will continue to be a key part of advertising campaigns, but more and more advertisers will experiment with or allocate portions of their budget to new, alternative media.  Many marketers and advertisers are realizing better and more measurable ROI and each day the shift to new media will continue with alternative advertising spending being estimated to increase more than 21% from 2006 to 2011 while traditional advertising’s compound growth rate will stall at roughly 1% per year, according to a communications industry forecast published by Veronis Suhler Stevenson.

Blogging: Everyone Isn’t An Expert
Over the past several years, it seems like everybody and their Mom has started a blog.  The word “blog” has moved from web jargon to a household term.  When there are too many options and too much supply, demand usually wanes.  I don’t think there are or can be “too many” blogs, but in 2008, people will narrow down their RSS feeds and will look for experts.  With more bloggers out there than at any other time, people are beginning to realize they have many options on many topics when it comes to valuable and original content.  Also, many individuals and companies that started blogs and joined the blogging bandwagon have let their blogs fall to the wayside or haven’t had much success, so I predict a natural correction is taking place as the committed and original bloggers are separated from bloggers simply looking to join the bandwagon or make more money by pitching their products/services on a blog.

Social Networking: Expansion, Explosion, and Older Age Groups
Sure, every teenager and most twenty-somethings are fully immersed in the social networking realm, utilizing websites like Facebook and mySpace to manage their friendships, pictures, etc…  In 2008, social networking will expand and explode with niche social networking websites cropping up around every topic imaginable.  Tools like Ning makes this more possible than ever.    Social networking will also be utilized by older age groups as Mom and Dad and Grandpa and Grandma begin using social networking websites to make more efficient use of their time, stay connected with love ones, and share their media.

Small IS The New Big
Is a “multinational microbusiness” a contradiction or the future norm?  In 2008, small continues to dominate as small businesses are further enabled to be more nimble, more global, and more innovative via technology improvements.  With web 2.0, social networking, and more web applications than you can handle, it will become easier and easier to brainstorm an idea, deploy a business, and follow-through without being GE or having Warren Buffet as your financial backer.

Part Two Teaser: The World Continues To Flatten, Group Think Is In, The Green Life, Cell Phones (and how they’re used) Evolve, and Marketing Gets More Creative